Protocol for creating a dataset of U.S. state alcohol-related firearm laws 2000-2022.

Firearms are a major source of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, contributing to over 48,000 deaths in 2022 and generating societal costs in excess of $500 billion. A body of work has examined the relationship between US state level firearm laws and health outcomes, generally finding that some firearm regulations are associated with lower firearm-related mortality. Alcohol has been identified as an additional risk factor for both homicides and suicide and stronger state alcohol laws have been associated with lower rates of suicide. To date, there are no empirical studies that have investigated the impact of laws over a long period of time that target the intersection of alcohol and firearm. One reason for this may be because there is no existing dataset that includes the range of these state laws over time. This study describes the protocol for collecting, coding and operationalizing these legal data.

Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemiological complexity: A scoping review of Agent-Based Models and their application.

OBJECTIVE: To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities. METHODS: We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations. RESULTS: We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations. CONCLUSIONS: While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results.

Income determines the impact of cash transfers on HIV/AIDS: cohort study of 22.7 million Brazilians.

Living with extremely low-income is an important risk factor for HIV/AIDS and can be mitigated by conditional cash transfers. Using a cohort of 22.7 million low-income individuals during 9 years, we evaluated the effects of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, the Programa Bolsa Família, on HIV/AIDS-related outcomes. Exposure to Programa Bolsa Família was associated with reduced AIDS incidence by 41% (RR:0.59; 95%CI:0.57-0.61), mortality by 39% (RR:0.61; 95%CI:0.57-0.64), and case fatality rates by 25% (RR:0.75; 95%CI:0.66-0.85) in the cohort, and Programa Bolsa Família effects were considerably stronger among individuals of extremely low-income [reduction of 55% for incidence (RR:0.45, 95% CI:0.42-0.47), 54% mortality (RR:0.46, 95% CI:0.42-0.49), and 37% case-fatality (RR:0.63, 95% CI:0.51 -0.76)], decreasing gradually until having no effect in individuals with higher incomes. Similar effects were observed on HIV notification. Programa Bolsa Família impact was also stronger among women and adolescents. Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results. Conditional cash transfers can significantly reduce AIDS morbidity and mortality in extremely vulnerable populations and should be considered an essential intervention to achieve AIDS-related sustainable development goals by 2030.

An assessment of court fees, surcharges, and penalties for alcohol-impaired driving in five midwestern U.S. states: implications for exacerbating poverty and health inequalities.

Driving under the influence (DUI) remains an important threat to public health in the United States, and a substantial literature has evaluated the effectiveness of state-mandated penalties. Researchers have overlooked accelerated use of obscured fees and surcharges levied by local and state court systems added to penalties in the past 15 years. We present data regarding DUI penalties for offenders with a blood alcohol content (BAC of 0.08) and the fees and surcharges attached to them in Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa, and variation in these within Wisconsin at four BAC levels. In all states, surcharges and fees exceed penalty fines substantially. Variation within Wisconsin is also meaningful. Our data suggest that opaque costs in state court systems add a substantial financial burden to DUI penalties, particularly for those with lower incomes. An appraisal of the deterrent role of these added costs is warranted.

The effect of primary health care on AIDS incidence and mortality: a cohort study of 3.4 million Brazilians.

Background: Primary Health Care (PHC) is essential for the health and wellbeing of people living with HIV/AIDS. This study evaluated the effects of one of the largest community-based PHC programs in the world, the Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS), on AIDS incidence and mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort study carried out in Brazil, from January 1 2007 to December 31 2015. We conducted a quasi-experimental effect evaluation using a cohort of 3,435,068 ≥13 years low-income individuals who were members of the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort, linked to AIDS diagnoses and deaths registries. We evaluated the effect of FHS on AIDS incidence and mortality and comparing outcomes between residents of municipalities with no FHS coverage with those in municipalities with full FHS coverage. We used multivariable Poisson regressions adjusted for all relevant municipal and individual-level demographic, socioeconomic, and contextual variables, and weighted with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We also estimated FHS effect by sex and age, and performed a wide range of sensitivity and triangulation analyses. Findings: FHS coverage was associated with lower AIDS incidence (rate ratio [RR]:0.76, 95%CI:0.68-0.84) and mortality (RR:0.68,95%CI:0.56-0.82). FHS effect was similar between men and women, but was larger in people aged ≥35 years old both for incidence (RR 0.62, 95%CI:0.53-0.72) and mortality (RR 0.56, 95%CI:0.43-0.72). Conclusions: AIDS should be an avoidable outcome for most people living with HIV today, and our study shows that FHS coverage could significantly reduce AIDS incidence and mortality among low-income populations in Brazil. Universal access to comprehensive healthcare through community-based PHC programs should be promoted to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS by 2030.

Modeling State Firearm Law Adoption Using Temporal Network Models.

Policy Points Promoting healthy public policies is a national priority, but state policy adoption is driven by a complex set of internal and external factors. This study employs new social network methods to identify underlying connections among states and to predict the likelihood of new firearm-related policy adoption given changes to this interstate network. This approach could be used to assess the likelihood that a given state will adopt a specific new firearm-related law and to identify points of influence that could either inhibit or promote wider diffusion of specific laws. CONTEXT: US states are largely responsible for the regulation of firearms within their borders. Each state has developed a different legal environment with regard to firearms based on different values and beliefs of citizens, legislators, governors, and other stakeholders. Predicting the types of firearm laws that states may adopt is therefore challenging. METHODS: We propose a parsimonious model for this complex process and provide credible predictions of state firearm laws by estimating the likelihood they will be passed in the future. We employ a temporal exponential-family random graph model to capture the bipartite state law-state network data over time, allowing for complex interdependencies and their temporal evolution. Using data on all state firearm laws over the period 1979-2020, we estimate these models' parameters while controlling for factors associated with firearm law adoption, including internal and external state characteristics. Predictions of future firearm law passage are then calculated based on a number of scenarios to assess the effects of a given type of firearm law being passed in the future by a given state. FINDINGS: Results show that a set of internal state factors are important predictors of firearm law adoption, but the actions of neighboring states may be just as important. Analysis of scenarios provide insights into the mechanics of how adoption of laws by specific states (or groups of states) may perturb the rest of the network structure and alter the likelihood that new laws would become more (or less) likely to continue to diffuse to other states. CONCLUSIONS: The methods used here outperform standard approaches for policy diffusion studies and afford predictions that are superior to those of an ensemble of machine learning tools. The proposed framework could have applications for the study of policy diffusion in other domains.

The effects of social determinants of health on acquired immune deficiency syndrome in a low-income population of Brazil: a retrospective cohort study of 28.3 million individuals.

Background: Social determinants of health (SDH) include factors such as income, education, and race, that could significantly affect the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Studies on the effects of SDH on HIV/AIDS are limited, and do not yet provide a systematic understanding of how the various SDH act on important indicators of HIV/AIDS progression. We aimed to evaluate the effects of SDH on AIDS morbidity and mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals was evaluated over a 9-year period (from 2007 to 2015). Multivariable Poisson regression, with a hierarchical approach, was used to estimate the effects of SDH-at the individual and familial level-on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rates. Findings: A total of 28,318,532 individuals, representing the low-income Brazilian population, were assessed, who had a mean age of 36.18 (SD: 16.96) years, 52.69% (14,920,049) were female, 57.52% (15,360,569) were pardos, 34.13% (9,113,222) were white/Asian, 7.77% (2,075,977) were black, and 0.58% (154,146) were indigenous. Specific socioeconomic, household, and geographic factors were significantly associated with AIDS-related outcomes. Less wealth was strongly associated with a higher AIDS incidence (rate ratios-RR: 1.55; 95% confidence interval-CI: 1.43-1.68) and mortality (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.70-2.34). Lower educational attainment was also greatly associated with higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68), mortality (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.99-3.82) and case-fatality rates (RR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.31-4.01). Being black was associated with a higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.45-1.61), mortality (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.83) and case-fatality rates (RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32). Overall, also considering the other SDH, individuals experiencing greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation were, by far, more likely to acquire AIDS, and to die from it. Interpretation: In the population studied, SDH related to poverty and social vulnerability are strongly associated with a higher burden of HIV/AIDS, most notably less wealth, illiteracy, and being black. In the absence of relevant social protection policies, the current worldwide increase in poverty and inequalities-due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of war in the Ukraine-could reverse progress made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Funding: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NAIDS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), US Grant Number: 1R01AI152938.

Recreational cannabis legislation and binge drinking in U.S. adolescents and adults.

BACKGROUND: Recreational cannabis laws (RCLs) may have spillover effects on binge drinking. Our aims were to investigate binge drinking time trends and the association between RCLs and changes in binge drinking in the United States (U.S.). METHODS: We used restricted National Survey on Drug Use and Health data (2008-2019). We examined trends in the prevalence of past-month binge drinking by age groups (12-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51+). Then, we compared model-based prevalences of past-month binge drinking before and after RCL by age group, using multi-level logistic regression with state random intercepts, an RCL by age group interaction term, and controlling for state alcohol policies. RESULTS: Binge drinking declined overall from 2008 to 2019 among people aged 12-20 (17.54% to 11.08%), and those aged 21-30 (43.66% to 40.22%). However, binge drinking increased among people aged 31+ (ages 31-40: 28.11% to 33.34%, ages 41-50: 25.48% to 28.32%, ages 51+: 13.28% to 16.75%). When investigating model-based prevalences after versus before RCL, binge drinking decreased among people aged 12-20 (prevalence difference=-4.8%; adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=0.77, [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.85]), and increased among participants aged 31-40 (+1.7%; 1.09[1.01-1.26]), 41-50 (+2.5; 1.15[1.05-1.26]) and 51+ (+1.8%; 1.17[1.06-1.30]). No RCL-related changes were noted in respondents ages 21-30. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of RCLs was associated with increased past-month binge drinking in adults aged 31+ and decreased past-month binge drinking in those aged < 21. As the cannabis legislative landscape continues to change in the U.S., efforts to minimize harms related to binge drinking are critical.

The effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS prevention and care outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention studies.

BACKGROUND: Poverty and social inequality are risk factors for poor health outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS. In addition to eligibility, cash transfer programmes can be divided into two categories: those with specific requirements (conditional cash transfers [CCTs]) and those without specific requirements (unconditional cash transfers). Common CCT requirements include health care (eg, undergoing an HIV test) and education (eg, children attending school). Trials assessing the effect of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS outcomes have yielded divergent findings. This review aimed to summarise evidence to evaluate the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV/AIDS prevention and care outcomes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, LILACS, WHO IRIS, PAHO-IRIS, BDENF, Secretaria Estadual de Saúde SP, Localizador de Informação em Saúde, Coleciona SUS, BINACIS, IBECS, CUMED, SciELO, and Web of Science up to Nov 28, 2022. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated the effects of cash transfer programmes on HIV incidence, HIV testing, retention in HIV care, and antiretroviral therapy adherence, and conducted risk of bias and quality of evidence assessments using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations approach. A random-effects meta-analysis model was used to combine studies and calculate risk ratios (RRs). Subgroup analyses were performed using conditionality types (ie, school attendance or health care). The protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021274452. FINDINGS: 16 RCTs, which included 5241 individuals, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 13 studies included conditionalities for receiving cash transfer programmes. The results showed that receiving a cash transfer was associated with lowered HIV incidence among individuals who had to meet health-care conditionalities (RR 0·74, 95% CI 0·56-0·98) and with increased retention in HIV care for pregnant women (1·14, 95% CI 1·03-1·27). No significant effect was observed for HIV testing (RR 0·45, 95% CI 0·18-1·12) or antiretroviral therapy adherence (1·13, 0·73-1·75). Lower risk of bias was observed for HIV incidence and having an HIV test. The strength of available evidence can be classified as moderate. INTERPRETATION: Cash transfer programmes have a positive effect on mitigating HIV incidence for individuals who have to meet health-care conditionalities and on increasing retention in HIV care for pregnant women. These results show the potential of cash transfer programmes for HIV prevention and care, especially among people in extreme poverty, and highlight that cash transfer programmes must be considered when developing policies for HIV/AIDS control, as indicated by the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target of the HIV care continuum. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, USA.

Distinct domains of childhood disadvantage and cognitive performance among older Brazilians: Evidence from ELSI-Brazil.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between of distinct domains of childhood disadvantage and cognitive performance among older adults within the context of a middle-income country. Methods: This study used baseline data (2015/2016) from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI), a nationally representative cohort of 9412 adults aged 50 and over. Nine childhood exposure variables were grouped into three domains (family SES, childhood health, and cultural capital), for which scores were created. Survey-weighted Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions estimated the association childhood disadvantage with cognitive performance as measured by immediate memory, late memory and semantic verbal fluency. Mediation analysis assessed whether adulthood socioeconomic status (SES) mediated this relationship of interest. Results: Important disparities in cognitive performance were observed, particularly in terms of age, education, income, occupational status. Before controlling for adulthood SES in the multivariable analysis, all domains of childhood disadvantage were found to be associated with lower cognitive performance across all three measures. After inclusion of adulthood SES variables, the observed associations only remained for semantic verbal fluency. Formal mediation analysis indicated that adulthood SES mediates 47.9% (95% CI: 34.3%-78.6%) of the association between later-life verbal fluency and poor childhood health, and 49.9% (95% CI: 43.6%-57.8%) of the association between later-life verbal fluency and low childhood cultural capital. Conclusions: We found that childhood disadvantage is associated with low performance in memory tests and semantic verbal fluency tests among older Brazilians. Adulthood SES fully mediated the association between all domains of childhood disadvantage and memory performance and only partially mediated its association with verbal fluency. Our findings support policy efforts to enhance early childhood development and improve adulthood SES, and guide additional research to better the mechanisms driving these relationships.

Evolving academic and research partnerships in global health: a capacity-building partnership to assess primary healthcare in the Philippines.

Building fair, equitable, and beneficial partnerships between institutions collaborating in research in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC) has become an integral part of research capacity building in global health in recent years. In this paper, we offer an example of an academic collaboration between the University of California Los Angeles, Center for Health Policy and Research (UCLA CHPR) and the University of Philippines, Manila, College of Public Health (UPM CPH) that sought to build an equitable partnership between research institutions. The partnership was built on a project to build capacity for research and produce data for policy action for the prevention and care of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) through primary healthcare in the Philippines. The specific objectives of the project were to: (1) locally adapt the Primary Care Assessment Tool for the Philippines and use the adapted tool to measure facility-level primary care delivery, (2) conduct focus group discussions (FGDs) to gather qualitative observations regarding primary care readiness and capacity, and (3) conduct a comprehensive population-based health survey among adults on NCDs and prior healthcare experience. We describe here the progression of the partnership between these institutions to carry out the project and the elements that helped build a stronger connection between the institutions, such as mutual goal setting, cultural bridging, collaborative teams, and capacity building. This example, which can be used as a model depicting new directionality and opportunities for LMIC-HIC academic partnerships, was written based on the review of shared project documents, including study protocols, and written and oral communications with the project team members, including the primary investigators. The innovation of this partnership includes: LMIC-initiated project need identification, LMIC-based funding allocation, a capacity-building role of the HIC institution, and the expansion of scope through jointly offered courses on global health.

The Diffusion of Punitive Firearm Preemption Laws Across U.S. States.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm violence is a public health crisis. Most states prohibit local firearm laws, but some states have laws that allow for lawsuits and other penalties against local governments and lawmakers who pass firearm laws deemed preempted. These punitive firearm preemptive laws may reduce firearm policy innovation, discussion, and adoption beyond preemption alone. Yet, it is unknown how these laws spread from state to state. METHODS: In 2022, using an event history analysis framework with state dyads, logistic regression models estimate the factors associated with adoption and diffusion of firearm punitive preemption laws, including state-level demographic, economic, legal, political, population, and state-neighbor factors. RESULTS: As of 2021, 15 states had punitive firearm preemption laws. Higher numbers of background checks (AOR=1.50; 95% CI=1.15, 2.04), more conservative government ideology (AOR=7.79; 95% CI=2.05, 35.02), lower per capita income (AOR=0.16; 95% CI=0.05, 0.44), a higher number of permissive state firearm laws (AOR=2.75; 95% CI=1.57, 5.30), and neighboring state passage of the law (AOR=3.97; 95% CI=1.52, 11.51) were associated with law adoption. CONCLUSIONS: Both internal and external state factors predict the adoption of punitive firearm preemption. This study may provide insight into which states are susceptible to adoption in the future. Advocates, especially in neighboring states without such laws, may want to focus their firearm safety policy efforts on opposing the passage of punitive firearm preemption.

Extracurricular Activities, Child and Caregiver Mental Health, and Parental Aggravation-A National Cross-Sectional Study.

OBJECTIVE: Expanding access to extracurricular activities (EA) may help address the growing mental health needs of children and caregivers. Evidence supports that EA may benefit child mental health, but few studies explore whether this association is influenced by child and EA factors. Further, the impact of EA on caregivers remains unknown. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the 2019 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH), a nationally representative sample of children and their caregivers. We used responses from caregivers of children aged 6 to 17. Weighted logistic regressions tested associations between EA and 1) child anxiety and/or depression diagnosis, 2) caregiver mental health, and 3) parental aggravation, controlling for child, family, and neighborhood-level covariates. Interaction terms tested whether associations were moderated by child age, sex, and presence of physical, developmental, or behavioral condition. Subanalyses explored whether results varied by EA number and type. RESULTS: Weighted sample included 21,259 children. There were disparities in which children were engaged in EA. EA participation was associated with lower odds of a 1) child being diagnosed with anxiety and/or depression; 2) caregiver reporting "fair/poor" mental health, and 3) caregiver reporting "usually/always" experiencing parental aggravation. Child age, sex, EA number and type, but not health condition, influenced the relationship between EA and child anxiety and/or depression diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Access to EA is associated with child mental health and family functioning. Further studies should assess causality and specific mechanisms of action.

Effective primary care attenuates the association between frailty and hospital admission in old age: the ELSI-Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome leading to a higher hospitalization. However, few studies explicitly analyze whether measures of effective primary care modify the relationship between frailty and hospital admission. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included data from the second wave of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil), a representative community-based study with older adults aged 50 years and over, conducted in 2019-2021. Self-reported hospital admission in the past 12 months was the outcome. Frailty included the 5 phenotypic criteria: weight loss, exhaustion, low physical activity, weakness, and slowness. The effective primary care index included 12 attributes indicators, continuously. Statistical analyzes comprised logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the 7,436 study participants, frailty (odds ratio [OR] 2.17; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI] 1.31-3.62) and effective primary care index (OR 1.10; 95% CI 1.03-1.16) were positively associated with higher hospitalization. Interaction revealed that while effective primary care was positively associated with hospitalization, this association was different among frail older adults (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.65-0.99). After stratification by frailty status, positive association with hospitalization remained only among prefrail and nonfrail individuals. The predicted probability of hospitalization tended to decrease along with higher primary care index values among frail older adults and became similar to prefrail/nonfrail at the highest end of the scale. CONCLUSIONS: Effective primary care decreases the likelihood of hospital admission among frail older adults. Interventions for delaying frailty should be initiated in primary care along with policies to strengthen primary care's organizational and provider/team-level attributes.

Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome leading to a higher hospitalization. However, few studies explicitly analyze whether measures of effective primary care modify the relationship between frailty and hospital admission. Using data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSI-Brazil), a representative community-based study with older adults aged 50 years and over, we evaluated self-reported hospital admission in the past 12 months, frailty according to 5 phenotypic criteria, and an effective primary care index with 12 attributes indicators. According to data of 7,436 study participants, we revealed that while effective primary care index was positively associated with hospital admission, this association was different among frail older adults. After stratification by frailty status, positive association with hospitalization remained only among prefrail and nonfrail individuals. Therefore, effective primary care decreases the likelihood of hospital admission among frail older adults. Interventions for delaying frailty should be initiated in primary care along with policies to strengthen primary care's organizational and provider/team-level attributes.

Incorporating social determinants of health into the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS.

Currently, it is estimated that 37.6 million people are living with the HIV/AIDS virus worldwide, placing HIV/AIDS among the ten leading causes of death, mostly among low- and lower-middle-income countries. Despite the effective intervention in the prevention and treatment, this reduction did not occur equally among populations, subpopulations and geographic regions. This difference in the occurrence of the disease is associated with the social determinants of health (SDH), which could affect the transmission and maintenance of HIV. With the recognition of the importance of SDH in HIV transmission, the development of mathematical models that incorporate these determinants could increase the accuracy and robustness of the modeling. This article aims to propose a theoretical and conceptual way of including SDH in the mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS. The theoretical mathematical model with the Social Determinants of Health has been developed in stages. For the selection of SDH that were incorporated into the model, a narrative literature review was conducted. Secondly, we proposed an extended model in which the population (N) is divided into Susceptible (S), HIV-positive (I), Individual with AIDS (A) and individual under treatment (T). Each SDH had a different approach to embedding in the model. We performed a calibration and validation of the model. A total of 31 SDH were obtained in the review, divided into four groups: Individual Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Social Participation, and Health Services. In the end, four determinants were selected for incorporation into the model: Education, Poverty, Use of Drugs and Alcohol abuse, and Condoms Use. the section "Numerical simulation" to simulate the influence of the poverty rate on the AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We used a Brazilian dataset of new AIDS cases and deaths, which is publicly available. We calibrated the model using a multiobjective genetic algorithm for the years 2003 to 2019. To forecast from 2020 to 2035, we assumed two lines of poverty rate representing (i) a scenario of increasing and (ii) a scenario of decreasing. To avoid overfitting, we fixed some parameters and estimated the remaining. The equations presented with the chosen SDH exemplify some approaches that we can adopt when thinking about modeling social effects on the occurrence of HIV. The model was able to capture the influence of the employment/poverty on the HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, evidencing the importance of SDOH in the occurrence of diseases. The recognition of the importance of including the SDH in the modeling and studies on HIV/AIDS is evident, due to its complexity and multicausality. Models that do not take into account in their structure, will probably miss a great part of the real trends, especially in periods, as the current on, of economic crisis and strong socioeconomic changes.

Healthcare access, utilization, and quality after a disaster: results from the Brumadinho Health Project.

OBJECTIVE: In January 2019 a dam at the Córrego do Feijão mine suffered a catastrophic failure that killed 270 people and caused extensive damage. It is unknown how exposure to such a disaster might affect healthcare utilization. METHODS: We assessed survey data from the Brumadinho Health Project, a cohort study that includes people who were exposed to the dam failure and two comparison groups: people unexposed to mining or the disaster and people from a mining community, but not exposed to the disaster. Main outcomes include any doctor visit or hospitalization in the past year, having a usual source of healthcare, having blood pressure and blood sugar checked, and being up to date with vaccinations, for adults 18 years and over. We used survey-weighted robust Poisson regression to assess differences between those exposed and the two comparison groups while controlling for confounders. RESULTS: In multivariable models, the exposed group had a 15% higher chance of having a doctor visit than the unexposed group. For hospitalization and reports of blood pressure and blood sugar assessments, there was no significant difference among any of the groups. The exposed group had a 24% higher chance and the unexposed mining community had a 143% higher chance of being up to date with immunizations, as compared to the unexposed group. CONCLUSION: There were some differences in healthcare utilization among individuals exposed to the dam failure. Continued monitoring of the situation is warranted, as the full consequences of such a traumatic event may take considerable time to unfold.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil: a longitudinal ecological study.

BACKGROUND: One of the biggest challenges of the response to the AIDS epidemic is to reach the poorest people. In 2004, Brazil implemented one of the world's largest conditional cash transfer programmes, the Bolsa Família Programme (BFP). We aimed to evaluate the effect of BFP coverage on AIDS incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality in Brazil. METHODS: In this longitudinal ecological study, we developed a conceptual framework linking key mechanisms of BFP effects on AIDS indicators and used ecological panel data from 5507 Brazilian municipalities over the period of 2004-18. We used government sources to calculate municipal-level AIDS incidence, hospitalisation, and mortality rates, and used multivariable regressions analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models to estimate the effect of BFP coverage, which was classified as low (0-29%), intermediate (30-69%), and high (≥70%), on AIDS indicators, while adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care covariates at the municipal level. FINDINGS: Between 2004 and 2018, in the municipalities under study, 601 977 new cases of AIDS were notified, of which 376 772 (62·6%) were in males older than 14 years, 212 465 (35·3%) were in females older than 14 years, and 12 740 (2·1%) were in children aged 14 years or younger. 533 624 HIV/AIDS-related hospitalisations, and 176 868 AIDS-related deaths had been notified. High BFP coverage was associated with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 5·1% (95% CI 0·9-9·1) for AIDS incidence, 14·3% (7·7-20·5) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 12·0% (5·2-18·4) for AIDS mortality. The effect of the BFP on AIDS indicators was more pronounced in municipalities with higher AIDS endemicity levels, with reductions in incidence rate ratios of 12·7% (95% CI 5·4-19·4) for AIDS incidence, 21·1% (10·7-30·2) for HIV/AIDS hospitalisations, and 14·7% (3·2-24·9) for AIDS-related mortality, and reductions in AIDS incidence of 14·6% (5·9-22·5) in females older than 14 years, 9·7% (1·4-17·3) in males older than 14 years, and 24·5% (0·5-42·7) in children aged 14 years or younger. INTERPRETATION: The effect of BFP coverage on AIDS indicators in Brazil could be explained by the reduction of households' poverty and by BFP health-related conditionalities. The protection of the most vulnerable populations through conditional cash transfers could contribute to the reduction of AIDS burden in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portugese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Do alcohol policies affect everyone equally? An assessment of the effects of state policies on education-related patterns of alcohol use, 2011-2019.

BACKGROUND: Public policies are a powerful tool to change behaviors that may harm population health, but little is known about how state alcohol policies affect different population groups. This study assesses the effects of a comprehensive measure of the state alcohol regulatory environment (the State Alcohol Policy Score or SAPS) on heavy drinking-a risk factor for premature death-on different population groups, defined by levels of educational attainment, then by race/ethnicity, and sex. METHODS: We pool each state's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) 2011-2019 and use robust Poisson regression analyses that control for individual-level factors, state-level factors (1 year lagged SAPS score for each state, state fixed effects), and year fixed effects to assess the relationship between SAPS and heavy drinking behaviors by education group. Interaction terms test whether education moderates the relationship by race/ethnicity and gender. RESULTS: SAPS scores increased 2010-2018, but substantial gaps persist between states. A 10 % increase in a state's alcohol policy score is associated with a 2 % lower prevalence in current drinking (APR=0.97, 95 % CI=0.97-0.97, p < 0.0011) although not for those with a high school education or less. A 10 % increase in the SAPS was associated with a 3 % lower prevalence of heavy drinking; interaction terms in models reveal that a 10 % increase in the SAPS was associated with a lower prevalence of heavy drinking among those with less than a college education. CONCLUSION: Narrowing gaps in alcohol policies between states may reduce heavy drinking among those with lower educational attainment.

Primary care experiences among Brazilian adults: Cross-sectional evidence from the 2019 National Health Survey.

OBJECTIVES: The Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS) is strongly associated with better health system performance, but there are no nationally-representative data examining individual-level primary care experiences in the country. Here, we examine reports of primary care experiences among adults with different forms of healthcare coverage (FHS, "traditional" public health posts, and private health plans). METHODS: Data are from the 2019 National Health Survey that included a shortened version of the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT). PCAT questions were administered to a subsample of randomly-selected adults who had a doctor visit within the past 6 months and sought care in a primary care setting (9677 respondents). We used linear regression to examine the association between type of healthcare coverage and PCAT scores adjusted for sex, age, socioeconomic status, health status, geographic region and state of residence. RESULTS: Primary care experiences in the sample of Brazilians who had a doctor visit 6 months prior to the survey averaged a modest PCAT score of 57 out of 100. Regression models show that users of the FHS had superior primary care experiences, but with large variations across Brazilian regions and states. Individuals selected to respond to the PCAT questions were more likely to be female, older, and poorer, and to be in worse health than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Brazil's FHS is associated with modest, but higher-reported primary care experiences than both traditional public health posts and those who have a private health plan. Future iterations of the PCAT module could enhance generalizability by including individuals who had a doctor visit in the past 12 (instead of 6) months.